House Democrats Saving McCarthy is a Terrible Idea

If Matt Gaetz can be taken at his word, the House will soon face the question of whether Kevin McCarthy will retain his position as Speaker of the House.

The outcome to that question is unknown. At times this year, Gaetz has appeared to have sufficient votes among Republicans to deny McCarthy the opportunity to remain Speaker. Given the small Republican majority and new rules that permit Gaetz to single-handedly force the question, there has been a soft presumption McCarthy would lose any vote of confidence brought among his own members.

But perhaps McCarthy does survive, even among just his own caucus. In that scenario, the Speaker’s survival will likely rely, ironically, on a group of hard-right Gaetz compatriots opposed to McCarthy, but who at this moment find themselves part of the ‘then what’ caucus.

A motion to remove McCarthy leaves the Speakership vacant. But as we learned from the 15 roll call votes it took for McCarthy to secure the Speakership in January, the likelihood is slim that any other Republican today could seamlessly secure the necessary votes among Republicans to replace him. Add to that the conundrum that nobody actually wants the job of Speaker in this environment, and even the steely band of Gaetz rebels may decide to leave McCarthy in place until their plan for what comes next has time to mature.

But in the realm of the possible, where indeed Gaetz has the votes to take out McCarthy, all eyes then turn to House Democrats and whether they align around the traditional minority position of voting to remove the Republican Speaker, or whether House Dems extract from McCarthy sufficient concessions to then provide the votes to save him. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries could likely direct his caucus in either direction without defections, or he could simply allow Democratic members to vote as they see fit, presumably leading to the handful of Democratic votes necessary to save the Republican Speaker.

Let’s be clear. The idea of House Democrats protecting Kevin McCarthy and allowing him to remain Speaker is a terrible one, with no redeeming strategic or policy advantages, and one Democrats would regret for decades.

Kevin McCarthy has been the custodian of Donald Trump’s authoritarianism since the former President burst on the political stage. Time and time again, McCarthy has cowered when conviction should compel otherwise. He refused to cooperate with the January 6 investigation despite having actual knowledge of the former President’s state of mind. He has launched a meritless impeachment of Joe Biden, and personally empowered Jim Jordan, James Comer, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Gaetz himself. McCarthy has quickly abandoned the debt limit deal he struck with President Joe Biden just a few months back. And on policy, McCarthy stands for a hard right agenda on matters of the economy, healthcare, education, immigration, personal liberty, equity, and other critical matters of social justice. Kevin McCarthy is not a kindler, gentler conservative. He embraces corruption, he can’t be trusted, and he will shiv cooperating Democrats the first chance he gets.

So why in any rational world would Democrats throw Kevin McCarthy a lifeline? Perhaps for concessions, or perhaps because his replacement could be worse? No sober Democratic leader should accept a concession from Kevin McCarthy unless they are prepared to be disappointed, and a bit humiliated, when McCarthy quickly breaks that promise. And to the notion that McCarthy’s replacement could be worse, while there are Republican Speaker candidates far more contemptible than McCarthy, none would be particularly effective. Democrats control the White House, Senate Republicans largely reject the direction of House Republicans, and on the most consequential House votes this year, it’s the Democratic caucus that has delivered the direction and the votes for the debt ceiling raise and for preventing a government shutdown. The partisan math in the House doesn’t change just because the Speaker does.

But most importantly, if Democrats stand united and refuse to provide McCarthy the votes he needs, their political and policy leverage only increases as Republicans prove unable to organize around a new Speaker. McCarthy may offer a token concession today to Democrats for helping him retain power — knowing he will never honor his promise — but after the Speaker’s Chair is vacated and Republicans suffer through countless votes for a new Speaker with no resolution, the asking price for a Democratic lifeline only goes higher.

House Republicans created this mess. They own it. Their internal dysfunction is serving the best interests of the nation by limiting their effectiveness, and by further damaging their credibility in governing. There is no scenario in which House Democrats should help Republicans out of this situation. None, nada, zilch. It’s a no-good, awful, terrible idea that needs to be shut down as quickly as Republicans want to shut down the government.